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The transmissibility and control of pandemic influenza A (H1N1) virus.

Yang, Yang and Sugimoto, Jonathan D and Halloran, M Elizabeth and Basta, Nicole E and Chao, Dennis L and Matrajt, Laura and Potter, Gail and Kenah, Eben and Longini, Ira M (2009) The transmissibility and control of pandemic influenza A (H1N1) virus. Science (New York, N.Y.), 326 (5953). pp. 729-733. ISSN 1095-9203

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Article URL: http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/full/326/595...

Abstract

Pandemic influenza A (H1N1) 2009 (pandemic H1N1) is spreading throughout the planet. It has become the dominant strain in the Southern Hemisphere, where the influenza season has now ended. Here, on the basis of reported case clusters in the United States, we estimated the household secondary attack rate for pandemic H1N1 to be 27.3% [95% confidence interval (CI) from 12.2% to 50.5%]. From a school outbreak, we estimated that a typical schoolchild infects 2.4 (95% CI from 1.8 to 3.2) other children within the school. We estimated the basic reproductive number, R0, to range from 1.3 to 1.7 and the generation interval to range from 2.6 to 3.2 days. We used a simulation model to evaluate the effectiveness of vaccination strategies in the United States for fall 2009. If a vaccine were available soon enough, vaccination of children, followed by adults, reaching 70% overall coverage, in addition to high-risk and essential workforce groups, could mitigate a severe epidemic.

Item Type: Article
Additional Information: This article is available to subscribers only via the URL above.
DOI: 10.1126/science.1177373
PubMed ID: 19745114
NIHMSID: NIHMS193182
PMCID: PMC2880578
Grant Numbers: U01 GM070749-07, R01 AI032042-16
Keywords or MeSH Headings: Adolescent; Adult; Child; Computer Simulation; Disease Outbreaks/prevention & control; Family Health; Female; Housing; Humans; Influenza A Virus, H1N1 Subtype; Influenza Vaccines/immunology; Influenza, Human/epidemiology/immunology/prevention & control/transmission; Male; Mexico/epidemiology; Schools; United States/epidemiology; Young Adult;
Depositing User: Library Staff
Date Deposited: 01 Apr 2010 21:59
Last Modified: 12 Oct 2011 20:02
URI: http://authors.fhcrc.org/id/eprint/430

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