Gu, Wen and Pepe, Margaret S. (2009) Estimating the capacity for improvement in risk prediction with a marker. Biostatistics, 10 (1). pp. 172-186. ISSN 1468-4357
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Abstract
Consider a set of baseline predictors X to predict a binary outcome D and let Y be a novel marker or predictor. This paper is concerned with evaluating the performance of the augmented risk model P(D = 1|Y,X) compared with the baseline model P(D = 1|X). The diagnostic likelihood ratio, DLRX(y), quantifies the change in risk obtained with knowledge of Y = y for a subject with baseline risk factors X. The notion is commonly used in clinical medicine to quantify the increment in risk prediction due to Y . It is contrasted here with the notion of covariate adjusted effect of Y in the augmented risk model. We also propose methods for making inference about DLRX(y). Case-control study designs are accommodated. The methods provide a mechanism to investigate if the predictive information in Y varies with baseline covariates. In addition, we show that when combined with a baseline risk model and information about the population distribution of Y given X, covariate specific predictiveness curves can be estimated. These curves are useful to an individual in deciding if ascertainment of Y is likely to be informative or not for him. We illustrate with data from two studies: one is a study of the performance of hearing screening tests for infants; the other concerns the value of serum creatinine in diagnosing renal artery stenosis.
| Item Type: | Article or Abstract |
|---|---|
| Additional Information: | This is a pre-copy-editing, author-produced PDF of an article accepted for publication in Biostatistics following peer review. The definitive publisher-authenticated version Biostatistics. 2009 Jan;10(1):172-86 is available online at: http://biostatistics.oxfordjournals.org/cgi/content/full/10/1/172 |
| DOI: | 10.1093/biostatistics/kxn025 |
| PubMed ID: | 18714084 |
| NIHMSID: | NIHMS70095 |
| PMCID: | PMC2639345 |
| Grant Numbers: | R01 GM054438-12, U01 CA086368-09 |
| Keywords or MeSH Headings: | Biological Markers/*analysis; Biometry/methods; Creatinine/blood; Diagnostic Techniques and Procedures/standards; Female; Hearing Tests/methods/statistics & numerical data; Humans; Infant; *Likelihood Functions; Logistic Models; Male; Predictive Value of Tests; Reference Values; Renal Artery Obstruction/blood/epidemiology/physiopathology; Retrospective Studies; Risk Assessment/*methods; Risk Factors |
| Subjects: | Research Methodologies > Research design Research Methodologies > Epidemiology > Risk assessment Research Methodologies > Mathematics and statistics |
| Depositing User: | Library Staff |
| Date Deposited: | 25 Sep 2008 18:12 |
| Last Modified: | 14 Feb 2012 14:42 |
| URI: | http://authors.fhcrc.org/id/eprint/16 |
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